This paper investigates the implications of population aging for labor supply and economic growth in future China. We particularly introduce an indicator of labor supply-effective labor-which takes into account the differences on labor productivity across age groups. Based on a Computable General Equilibrium ( CGE) model，we simulate four scenarios with various labor supply assumptions，and compare their effects on the change of factor labor price，economic output，and industrial structure. Our results show that total effective labor supply in China is expected to peak in 2017 and then start to decline. The falling speed would be faster and more volatile than that of total population and total labor force. In the scenario of effective labor supply，the growth rate of GDP in China in the first half of this century will decline faster and fluctuate greater than that in the other scenarios where labor supply is assumed to be affected by the development of total population or total labor force. If labor supply is assumed to be determined only by the dynamics of working-age population，the future economic growth may be underestimated. Our study suggests that the heterogeneity of labor efficiency of age groups should not be neglected when we assess labor supply，such that we can avoid misjudging future economic growth and industrial structure change.

Based on the estimation of age-specific consumption pattern in both urban and rural China，this paper simulates and analyzes the impacts of population structure characterized by aging and urbanization on the household consumption in the near future，and quantifies their contributions．Results show that the household consumption presents a significant age pattern．Urban household consumption pattern differs remarkably from that of rural households within each age group．Assuming a constant consumption structure by age，population aging does not have strong impact on the aggregate household consumption in China in 2050 compared to that in 2010，although it can significantly affect the consumption structure．For example，population aging leads to a growth of health care consumption． Population urbanization can considerably promote the household consumption．The impact of population size on the household consumption will be far less than that of population aging and urbanization．Their contributions to the consumption are relatively stable under various scenarios of population projection and economic growth．

Based on household survey data from China Family Panel Study (CFPS) in 2010, this paper econometrically quantifies and estimates household consumption pattern by age and gender in both urban and rural China. Unlike previous studies in which only age factors are considered to be independent variables, we expand classical demand and consumption functions by including age variables in our econometric model to obtain stronger explanatory power and higher accuracy. Our results show that people aged 30-34 and 45-49 have the highest household consumption in their lifecycle; people aged 80 and above are the group with the largest urban-rural consumption disparity; rural residents reduce their expenditure on health care considerably at their very advanced age; rural middle-age women expend less than men on health care. Thus it is necessary to strengthen policy support to a certain groups of residents. Policy makers should pay more attention to population dynamics when they make decisions on adjusting industrial structure and planning public resources allocation.